Changements climatiques et sécurité alimentaire en Afrique subsaharienne.

Abstract

Climate change is having a direct impact on agricultural production in sub-Saharan African countries, particularly on key crops such as maize, sorghum and millet, with expected losses of up to 50% by 2050. Although international initiatives, such as the United Nations Environment Programme and the African Climate Resilience Fund, have been launched, they are hampered by limited resources and ineffective coordination. This research work analyzes the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security in 32 countries in the region between 2000 and 2020, with a particular focus on Cameroon. Using a longitudinal approach and random-effects regression models, the study examines five regression models to assess agricultural production and the dimensions of food security: availability, accessibility and food stability. Secondary data are drawn from FAOSTAT and the World Bank.

Results show significant differences in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between countries such as South Africa and Nigeria, which are major emitters, and others such as Cameroon, where levels remain more moderate but persistent. Regression analysis reveals that greenhouse gases, temperature, CO₂ and methane have a significant impact on plant and animal production.Furthermore, climatic factors show significant correlations with food availability, availability variability and the prevalence of undernourishment, validating the hypothesis that climate change significantly affects agricultural production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa.