Macroeconomic and Sociodemographic Drivers of Secondary School Enrollment in Mauritania: Evidence from an ARDL Approach (1986–2020)

Résumé

This paper examines the factors related to secondary school enrollment in Mauritania over the period 1986–2020. Annual data from the World Development Indicators are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and its associated error-correction model. The analysis considers the gross secondary school enrollment rate in relation to GDP per capita, urbanization, population growth, debt service, government expenditure, and foreign direct investment. The estimates point to a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The results show that urbanization and FDI are positively associated with secondary school enrollment, whereas population growth and debt service are associated with lower enrollment. GDP per capita also enters the long-run relationship with a negative coefficient, while government expenditure does not appear to have a statistically significant effect. The error-correction results indicate that deviations from the long-run relationship are corrected relatively quickly, although the adjustment process is oscillatory. The findings suggest that changes in demographic pressures, external debt obligations, and investment flows should be taken into account when designing policies aimed at expanding secondary education in Mauritania.